Random News: November 4, 2024

DISCLAIMER: Zak's Random News is very random and doesn't cover many things, and not everything may be accurate, because I'm just some guy. Go find a real news source.

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Good morning. It’s November 4, 2024, and it’s a Monday. How’s everyone feeling? Doing okay? The sensation of living in real time at a point that you know with 100% certainty will be in every history book isn't as great as some would assume. But here we are.

• The election is tomorrow, and I want to talk about women.
• I think women have been underestimated in this election cycle… by the media, by Republicans, by men, and even by their fellow women. Sometimes by themselves.
• I don’t think women are going to easily surrender their bodily autonomy to the government. I think women aren’t going to stand for another Dump presidency and all that comes with it.
• I think the full effect of the rage fueling Roevember isn’t something that’s been fully understood or measurable by polls.
• I think that women won’t allow their children to die via the Republican plan for unvaccinated kids spreading otherwise easily-manageable diseases.
• I think that older women are as angry as younger women. Possibly angrier.
• I think real men are going to support the women in their lives and also vote for Kamala Harris.
• And as a result, here’s what I think is very possible.
• Harris almost certainly wins CA, HI, OR, WA, NM, CO, IL, NY, VT, NH, most of ME, MA, CT, RI, DE, MD, VA, NJ, DC, and the “blue dot” of Omaha, NE. That’s 216 electoral votes to start.
• And Dumpy should be expected to take AK, UT, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, most of NE, one district of ME, KS, OK, LA, AR, MO, MS, AL, SC, TN, KY, IN, and WV. That’s 126 votes.
• I think Harris also wins MN, WI, MI, PA, though by closer margins. That’s 270 right there. That wins her the presidency. Dump is pretty likely to take one swing state with AZ, getting him to 137.
• But I don’t think it’s stopping there. A few respected pollster on Saturday claimed that Harris is up +3 in Iowa. If that’s the case, other states are in play.
• I think she wins GA, NC, and NV, bringing her up to 308.
• And I have suspicions that due to the aforementioned will and determination filling women and many other voter blocs, there is a low percentage but still very real possibility of Harris also winning Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and even Texas.
• That would be an electoral victory of 401-137 for Harris. I even have a “you have no idea how angry women really are” scenario with Harris winning 431-107.
• Those seem like lovely thoughts, but obviously also very optimistic. I’m going to tone that back for my final prediction.
• Harris 298, Dump 240.
• So tomorrow, just vote. See what happens. My scenario above is just a somewhat educated guess combined with my personal bias.
• And I’ll reiterate… with polling as close (and sometimes contradictory) as it’s been, none of us really have any idea what’s going to happen tomorrow.
• But the reality is that every day of your life, you never know what’s going to happen tomorrow with 100% certainty. Ask anyone who was ever struck by lightning, or gotten a surprise proposal, or any of a million things that happen to people from time to time that they didn’t see coming.
• We’ll find out what happens tomorrow… tomorrow. And we’ll figure things out from there, good or bad or otherwise. That’s called life.
• In more election news…
• Here are some of the key demographic groups that will likely decide the presidential election.
• The largest single voting group is white voters, but they’re been on a sharp decline as a share of the electorate since the 1990s.
• The biggest predictor of voting among white people? Whether or not they have a college degree. White voters with college degrees had long been reliable Republican voters. But Biden won that group in 2020. Polling suggests Democrats’ advantage with them could balloon in this election.
• The opposite has been true with white voters who don’t have college degrees. The Dump team believes it can turn out even more of them this year, but they are generally less likely to vote at all.
• As referenced above, women are the biggest factor in this election. And in fact, they’ve made up a majority of the electorate in every presidential election in the last 40 years.
• In 2020, Democrats won their largest share of women — 57%, and Democrats hope that number goes even higher this year for reasons of Roevember per above.
• The gender gap in 2024 could be the widest in any presidential election ever. The last two elections showed very wide gaps — 24 points in 2016, and 23 in 2020.
• Harris is currently polling among women with a whopping 34 point advantage. That can’t be surprising to anyone… especially considering the guy who’s running for office said just last week he’d force women to accept his “protection” whether they like it or not.
• That being said, white women voted 11 points in favor of Trump in 2020. That was, of course, before Dump’s SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade.
• Black women, though, voted for Biden by 81 points (hahahahahahah, fuck you, Dumpy). Latinas also broke overwhelmingly for Biden, too, 69% to 30%.
• How about Black voters overall? The latest poll had Harris winning 78% of Black voters, but that’s a lower percentage than either Biden or Obama.
• While Black voters may be only 13% of the vote nationally, they are crucial to Democrats’ chances in the swing states, particularly in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.
• Latinos have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the last four presidential elections by at least a 2-to-1 margin.
• Despite demonizing immigrants, making xenophobic and white nationalist messaging, and threatening mass deportations, Dump actually gained among Latinos in 2020. Biden won them in the seven most closely watched swing states, but by less than Clinton did in 2016.
• And in his usual inability to not fuck anything up, Dump then killed a huge amount of Latino support during his weird rally at Madison Square Garden when one of his chosen speakers called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”
• While Latinos are the largest-growing demographic group, Asian Americans are the fastest. 
• Since 2008, they have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. They could have the biggest impact in Nevada, where they are more than 9% of the eligible-voter population.
• They could also be crucial in places like Georgia. The AAPI population in the state has grown by more than 50% since 2010. While only about 3% of eligible voters in Georgia, there were more than 45,000 first-time AAPI voters in the state in 2020.
• Here’s another: when young voters turn out, Democrats win. In 2008, 2012 and 2020, Democrats won 60% or more of voters 18 to 29 years old and won.
• But this is a group that turns out at lower rates than others, and polls have indicated that they are among the least likely to say they are definitely voting in this election.
• In North Carolina, a big margin with young voters is crucial for Harris is going to win there.
• While I’m on the topic of North Carolina, their State Board of Elections announced yesterday that more than 4.2 million voters cast ballots at early in-person voting sites.
• That’s crazy. Including absentee voting, 4,465,548 voters — or 57% of the state’s 7.8 million registered voters — cast ballots in the general election as of yesterday morning.
• Will Harris be the first Democrat in 20 years to win seniors? She very well might.
• The last time was former Vice President Al Gore’s bid in 2000, when he won a larger share of voters 65 and older. Seniors and white voters with degrees are among the most likely voters.
• Let’s move on.
• On this final day before the election, Kamala Harris will be campaigning in Pennsylvania.
• She started with a canvass kickoff in Scranton this morning. Next is a rally in Allentown, featuring performances by rapper Fat Joe and Puerto Rican singer Frankie Negrón. Then she makes a stop in Reading.
• Tonight, Harris holds a rally in Pittsburgh. She’ll be joined by Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and musical guests including Katy Perry. She wraps up the campaign late tonight with a rally in Philadelphia, featuring Oprah and Lady Gaga.
• Where’s ol’ Dumpy? He has three rallies planned; in Reading, PA, Pittsburgh, PA, and ending in Grand Rapids, MI.
• So that’s it. This is the end of all that.
• Tomorrow morning, I”ll tell you about how I plan to monitor the election as it happens.
• In other news…
• Severe storms and tornadoes battered Oklahoma yesterday, tossing cars and ripping roofs off buildings in the middle of the night and leaving tens of thousands of homes and businesses without power.
• Numerous people were injured, including 11 who required hospitalization. Much of the damage was reported in and around the state capital of Oklahoma City, but also scattered elsewhere around the state.
• More than 99,000 Oklahoma homes and businesses lost power during the overnight storms. Forecasters warned state residents to brace for more heavy rain and possible severe weather through today.
• Thoughts are with our OK friends.
• And now, The Weather: “Falling Down A Well” by Jack J
• Rest in peace to a titan of the world of music. Musician, songwriter, arranger, composer, performer, and producer Quincy Jones died yesterday. He was 91.
• In a prolific career that spanned more than 70 years, Jones established himself as a behind-the-scenes force and a gifted artist in his own right, leaving his imprints on jazz, pop, hip-hop, and dozens of film and television soundtracks.
• You are probably most familiar with Q from his work as the producer of Michael Jackson’s landmark ‘Thriller’ album, but his work went far beyond that. Jones won 28 Grammys, putting him third on the list of all-time winners. 
• There are a million Quincy Jones stories. I never met or even spoke to the man, but I worked closely with many who did, and their personal tales of him confirm the fact that he was an extraordinary human being.
• A great story is that in the early 1970s, he had a medical condition that was believed to be so dire that his friends and family began preparing for his death. He eventually attended his own memorial service alongside comedian Richard Pryor, actor Sidney Poitier, and singer Marvin Gaye.
• And then lived for another 50 years. That’s a great life. RIP.
• From the Sports Desk… we’re at that point in the NFL season that the teams who are sucking are casting blame for their issues.
• The New Orleans Saints fired coach Dennis Allen after losing seven straight games. The Las Vegas Raiders — tied for the worst team in the league at 2-7 — fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy along with offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello.
• They should probably just fire everyone and start fresh.
• The best teams in the NFL remain the Chiefs (7-0), Lions (7-1), Bills (7-2), Commanders (7-2), and Steelers/Vikings/Eagles (6-2).
• Today in history… The future Mary II of England marries William, Prince of Orange; they later jointly reign as William and Mary (1677). Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart's Symphony No. 36 is performed for the first time in Linz, Austria (1783). Sir James Young Simpson, a Scottish physician, discovers the anesthetic properties of chloroform (1847). Japanese Prime Minister Hara Takashi is assassinated in Tokyo (1921). British archaeologist Howard Carter and his men find the entrance to Tutankhamen's tomb in the Valley of the Kings (1922). Nellie Tayloe Ross of Wyoming becomes the first female elected as governor in the United States (1924). Disobeying a direct order by Adolf Hitler, General Field Marshal Erwin Rommel begins a retreat of his forces after a costly defeat during the Second Battle of El Alamein (1942). The United States government establishes the National Security Agency, or NSA (1952). Dr. Jane Goodall observes chimpanzees creating tools, the first-ever observation in non-human animals (1960). Ronald Reagan is elected as the 40th President of the United States, defeating incumbent Jimmy Carter (1980). Barack Obama becomes the first person of biracial or African-American descent to be elected as President of the United States (2008). 
• November 4 is the birthday of painter Guido Reni (1575), painter Gerard van Honthorst (1592), king William III of England (1650), actor Edmund Kean (1787), actor/social commentator Will Rogers (1879), physicist Alfred Lee Loomis (1887), actor Gig Young (1913), gunnery sergeant John Basilone (1916), journalist Walter Cronkite (1916), actor Art Carney (1918), actor Martin Balsam (1919), actress Doris Roberts (1925), actress Loretta Swit (1937), singer-songwriter Delbert McClinton (1940), conservationist Kafi Benz (1941), first lady Laura Bush (1946), photographer Robert Mapplethorpe (1946), actress Markie Post (1950), race car driver Jacques Villeneuve (1953), guitarist/composer James Honeyman-Scott (1956), keyboardist/composer Jordan Rudess (1956), actress Kathy Griffin (1960), actor Ralph Macchio (1961), rapper/sex trafficker Sean Combs (1969), actor Matthew McConaughey (1969), NFL player Vince Wilfork (1981), and NFL player Dez Bryant (1988).

That’s enough. It will be nice when this is all over — whenever that is, hopefully sooner than later — and we can talk about more topics than the election. My advice for today? Be calm, make sure you have a plan to vote if you haven’t done so already — knowing where and what time you’re going to the polls — and apart from that, try and focus on the things you can affect, here and now. You’re important to the world every single day. Keep it in mind. Enjoy your day.