Random News: August 29, 2022

DISCLAIMER: Zak's Random News is very random and doesn't cover many things, and not everything may be accurate, because I'm just some guy. Go find a real news source.

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Good morning. It’s August 29, 2022, and it’s a Monday. Let’s go over some things that are trapped somewhere in my mind and want to get out… along with my 2022 Senate voting analysis!

• Here’s one big difference between me and a PAC: my focus is not about you donating money to candidates. Any money. Hey, if you can afford it and it makes you feel good, great.
• I’ve made small donations at various times… usually because I like a swag item like a Biden/Harris coffee mug or a Bernie Sanders t-shirt or whatever. So I’ll donate if I get something I’d want anyway.
• Do candidates need money to run campaigns? They sure do.
• That being said, unlike the texts and email you get from politicians of all sorts, my only “call to action” is to vote. You must vote.
• Let’s talk about the Senate. 34 seats out of 100 are up for reelection this November. Some are foregone conclusion to be won by the Democrats or Republicans. Some are swing states where either party has a chance.
• As a reminder, in the Senate, there are currently exactly 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two Independents that tend to caucus/vote with the Dems.
• Wanna talk about all 34 seats? Sure, why not. Swing states are indicated with a ***.
• Alabama: Republican Katie Britt will defeat Democrat Will Boyd by a large margin. She’ll replace outgoing six-term Senator Richard Shelby. No change there. SAFE GOP.
• Alaska: Due to a ranked-choice system, incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is up against Kelly Tshibaka, another Republican here. No matter who wins, no change. SAFE GOP.
• ***Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly, a Democrat, is facing Republican Blake Masters. They like Kelly in AZ and he’s currently polling well, though there are no guarantees with a state like Arizona. My current bet… no change. LIKELY DEM.
• Arkansas: Two-term incumbent Republican John Boozman will almost certainly defeat his challenger, Democrat Natalie James.  No changes. SAFE GOP.
• California: Incumbent Dem Alex Padilla took office to replace the former Senator, a certain Kamala Harris, and will face Republican Mark Meuser. Padilla has been doing fine so far. He’s got this. SAFE DEM.
• Colorado: Two-term incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is facing Republican Joe O’Dea. Bit of an interesting case here; O’Dea is a moderate who does not support Trump’s Big Lie regarding voter fraud, and supports some aspects of abortion. That being said, Bennet is currently polling pretty well ahead. My bet… no change. SAFE DEM.
• Connecticut: Two-term incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal will go against Trump-backed commodities trader Leora Levy. He’ll win. SAFE DEM.
• ***Florida: Two-term incumbent Republican Marco Rubio will be facing US Rep and former police chief Democrat Val Demings in November. You’d think that Florida is an automatic win for the GOP, but due to the huge backlash against the overturn of Roe, the picture in FL has shifted. Polls have varied; some show Rubio ahead, others show Demings ahead, others show a tie. I say she has a real shot here but no one knows for sure. TIE, LIKELY GOP, POSSIBLE FLIP TO DEM.
• ***Georgia: The seat is currently held by incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock. He’s going up against football player Republican Herschel Walker, who just seems beyond terrible. Polls are unfortunately very close, and this one is in danger of flipping. Please support Warnock any way you can. TIE, POSSIBLE FLIP TO GOP.
• Hawaii: Incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz has been great so far and is well liked by Hawaiian residents. He’s facing Republican Bob McDermott. Schatz will win handily. SAFE DEM.
• Idaho: Four-term (BOOO) incumbent Republican Mike Crapo will be facing David Roth, an out gay man. In Idaho. SAFE GOP.
• Illinois: Incumbent Democrat Tammy Duckworth faces Republican attorney Kathy Salvi in the general election. Duckworth has done well in the gig so far and is popular. She’ll hold the seat. SAFE DEM.
• Indiana: Incumbent Republican Todd Young will face Democrat Mayor Thomas McDermott, Jr. in November. Indiana is typically highly conservative, even though it’s less so than you probably assume. SAFE GOP.
• Iowa: Seven-term (BOOOOOO!!!!!!!!) incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley, who is 88 years old, is almost certainly going to beat Democrat Michael Franken, who is a retired Navy admiral. However, Grassley’s lead is the lowest separation he’s ever faced; he’s only up by eight points. SAFE GOP.
• Kansas: Two-term Republican Jerry Moran will face Democrat former Kansas City mayor Mark Holland. SAFE GOP.
• Kentucky: Two-term Republican Rand Paul is going up against Democrat Charles Booker, a state representative. I like Booker. He seems like a great and well-qualified guy. I seriously doubt he has any chance at winning in KY. SAFE GOP.
• Louisiana: Okay, so… this state has no primaries. Whoever is running gets on the ballot. That’s all. Incumbent Republican John Kennedy will win no matter who faces him. SAFE GOP.
• Maryland: Incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen will face a homebuilding contractor Republican named Chris Chaffee. SAFE DEM.
• Missouri: This state has a weird situation. The incumbent GOP senator is not seeking re-election. The GOP primary was won by State attorney general Eric Schmitt, who defeated former Governor Eric Greitens, who’d resigned from office in disgrace after a number of felony indictments. Schmitt will face Democrat Anheuser-Busch heiress Trudy Busch Valentine, and he currently leads by 11 points in the polls. SAFE GOP.
• ***Nevada: Another swing state. Incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is facing former state attorney general Adam Laxalt. She currently has a 7 point lead in polls but it will stay close. LIKELY DEM.
• New Hampshire: This state has a very late primary on September 13. That being said, incumbent Maggie Hassan will be the Democrat nominee, but New Hampshire is not immune from electing GOP candidates. However, Republican candidates who do well in NH have always been moderate ones, and this crop of contenders are all pretty MAGA, especially leading contender Don Bolduc. LIKELY DEM.
• New York: Four-term (BOOO) incumbent Democrat and U.S. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer will defeat his GOP opponent, Newsmax TV host Joe Pinion, by a lot. SAFE DEM. 

• ***North Carolina: Most people aren’t calling NC as a swing state… but I am! Trump endorsee GOP rep Ted Budd is favored, but keep your eye on dark horse Democrat challenger, former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court Cheri Beasley. They’re in a dead heat right now with no obvious leader. Support Cheri! TIE, LIKELY GOP, POSSIBLE FLIP TO DEM.
• North Dakota: Not sure why I’m bothering here, but two-term incumbent Republican John Hoeven will easily beat engineering professor Katrina Christiansen. Fun Fact: Christiansen’s party isn’t even Democrat. It’s “North Dakota Democratic–Nonpartisan League Party”. SAFE GOP.
• ***Ohio: I’m calling it a swing, and I don’t care if you don’t. Venture capitalist and author J. D. Vance is the GOP nominee; U.S. rep Tim Ryan is the Democratic nominee. Vance is narrowly leading Ryan at the moment; I think this is a race where the women of Ohio might be the turning point. TIE, LIKELY GOP, POSSIBLE FLIP TO DEM.
• Oklahoma: OK has two Senate seats opening up due to Jim Inhofe retiring. In the regular election, the incumbent Republican James Lankford will beat the Demo opponent Madison Horn. In the special election, US rep Markwayne Mullin will beat former US rep Kendra Horn. SAFE GOP x 2.
• Oregon: Four-term (BOOO) Democrat incumbent Ron Wyden will be beating Republican former financial advisor Jo Rae Perkins by a lot. SAFE DEM.
• ***Pennsylvania: Okay, this is a BIG swing state. Democrat candidate Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has run a great campaign against his Republican opponent, TV doctor Mehmet Oz. The polls are still tight but I think Fetterman is going to take it. LIKELY FLIP TO DEM.
• South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Tim Scott will beat Democrat state representative Krystle Matthews. Zero doubt. SAFE GOP.
• South Dakota: Not sure why I’m bothering with this, but I said I’d do them all. Three-term Republican incumbent and U.S. Senate minority whip John Thune will handily defeat the Democrat nominee, navy veteran and assistant professor Brian Bengs. SAFE GOP.
• Utah: Here’s a funny: Democrats aren’t bothering to run a candidate in this election. Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Lee will face independent Evan McMullin, a former CIA operations officer and 2016 presidential candidate. SAFE GOP.
• Vermont: In a gift to the term limit gods, eight-term Senator Patrick Leahy is retiring. Democrat US rep Peter Welch is running against Republican former military officer Gerald Malloy, and will win. SAFE DEM.
• Washington: Five-term (BOOOOOO) Democrat incumbent Patty Murray will get her sixth term by beating Republican nurse Tiffany Smiley. SAFE DEM.
• ***Wisconsin: Swing! The two-term incumbent Republican Ron Johnson is not at all well liked in his state. Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is his Democratic opponent. This is a dead heat tie at the moment, but polls in the past two weeks give Barnes between a 4-7 point edge over Johnson. TIE, LIKELY FLIP TO DEM.
• Holy shit, that was a lot of research and writing. 
• I do this for free. You’re welcome.
• Also, all of this is completely meaningless unless you vote.
• Yes, you. Literally you. VOTE.
• And now, The Weather: “The Drive” by Widowspeak.
• Today in history… Copper coins are minted in Japan (708). The city of Nuuk, Greenland is founded (1728). American forces defeat the British and Iroquois forces at the Battle of Newtown (1779). Massachusetts farmers have an armed uprising against high taxes and debts, called Shays’ Rebellion (1786). Michael Faraday discovers electromagnetic induction (1831). Gottlieb Daimler patents the world's first internal combustion motorcycle, the Reitwagen (1885). The Goodyear tire company is founded (1898). The Beatles perform their last ticketed concert at Candlestick Park in San Francisco (1966). Netflix is launched as an internet DVD rental service (1997). Hurricane Katrina devastates the Gulf Coast, killing up to 1,836 people and causing $125 billion in damage (2005).
• August 29 is the birthday of physician/philosopher John Locke (1632), physician/writer Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr. (1809), engineer Charles F. Kettering (1876), actress Ingrid Bergman (1915), saxophone kind Charlie Parker (1920), singer Dinah Washington (1924), soldier and politician John McCain (1936), actor Elliot Gould (1938), director Joel Schumacher (1939), press secretary and anti-gun activist James Brady (1940), singer Michael Jackson (1958), actress Rebecca De Mornay (1959), astronaut Chris Hadfield (1959), SCOTUS justice Neil Gorsuch (1967), bass player/singer Meshell Ndegeocello (1968), and pitcher Noah Syndergaard (1992).

So, at various times, I will also be doing some mini-guides to the House races (which I’ll need to break up, because there are way too many of those fuckers) and maybe some gubernatorial races too, if I feel like it. For the time being, I’m gonna work for a living and do what I do. You do you. Enjoy your day.